Are we going to reveal a secret of Bitcoin’s rate in 2018? Of course we aren’t. Nobody knows that, and many different predictions even those that are based on market researches can not guarantee that things will happen one way or another. This is because of an extreme volatility of world’s first cryptocurrency.
In July, 2010, when crypto-exchange Mt. Gox was opened, one BTC cost 7 cents. Early in 2013 it managed to reach $100, and in autumn increased up to $1000. Then it fell down and went back to this mark only in three years. 2017 became the year of Bitcoin, when the cryptocurrency increased significantly, reaching $20,000 in the last quarter. Today you will have to pay around $9.5 thousand for one BTC. So, as you can see, it’s not a big deal for Bitcoin to increase in 15 or 30 times, decrease in 5 or 10 times, go up and go down again. This is not what happens with US dollar or Euro, isn’t it? Bitcoin is not based on physical value and its price can be significantly affected by speculations and informational fuss. However, the general tendency of Bitcoin growth is clearly observed and its market capitalization has reached $159 billion.
Though it is not possible to predict how Bitcoin’s rate is going to change in 2018, one can determine different factors that may affect it. People use Bitcoin as a mean of payment more and more, and the number of network users increases. According to Metcalfe’s law, the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users. The increase of BTC transaction volume also has a positive impact.
On the other hand, alternative cryptocurrencies, first of all Ethereum, are getting more and more popular. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum is not just a peer-to-peer payment system, but a distributed software. Promising digital currencies with more available prices can attract more users and potentially affect the decrease of BTC rate. Moreover, if some crucial jurisdictions for cryptocurrency market, such as the US, China, South Korea, Russia and Japan will continue to implement crypto-restriction policy, Bitcoin’s rate can decrease or even collapse, for example, in case major exchanges are closed or cryptocurrency operations are banned.
Blockchain Capital partner Spencer Bogart expects Bitcoin to do two times better than in December, 2017, costing $50,000 in 2018, reports Sunday Express. He believes that large institutional investors (banks, financial companies, investment funds, etc.) will join the cryptocurrency market and bring more money.
Irman Wasim, financial analyst at AMSYS Group, also has quite positive predictions. Talking to News BTC, he claimed that more money would come to Bitcoin in 2018 and it will become even more “mainstream”. According to him, BTC rate is likely to increase to $30-35 thousand in 2018, and than even to $100 thousand. Bobby Lee, CEO of China’s first Bitcoin exchange BTCC, thinks that the cryptocurrency rate will reach $1 million for a coin in the following years.
Is it possible? It’s difficult to say. One thing is clear – despite all ups and downs, Bitcoin demonstrates sustained tendency to increase. However, is the unbacked currency able to increase endlessly without become a bubble? Probably not. Anyway, let’s see how Bitcoin will surprise us this year.