הצמיחה תהיה ב-2022
Author: Composite Man
There is something that is shown and imposed on you. In a bear market, this is FUD - news that causes doubt and fear. Here, the customers of this news need you to sell and not buy, because they are buying.
At the peak of the market, you already see other news and new opportunities for easy buying, because those who bought earlier need you to sell at the highest price.
Right now, the entire agenda in the media comes down to a recession. All major media, opinion leaders and representatives of major reputable financial institutions are involved.
All of them are now predicting a collapse that is spreading with terrible force through all sorts of sources.
And given that subscribers sometimes write to me, these horror stories work, as they always worked before.
But the agenda among the top management of exchanges or people involved in large funds is completely different. They don't read telegram channels, don't watch YouTube, and don't listen to what Ray Dalio or Michael Burry talk about publicly.
Serious bets are made silently and most often the fight on the sidelines is to be able to snatch the largest possible piece.
The main growth trigger in 2022
I think almost any cryptocurrency investor is familiar with the rule:
“If the Fed is printing money, then the markets are going up. In fact, turning on the printing press = a bull market for risky assets.”
Let's see why the Fed will be forced to "print" dollars in the near future.
1. I remind you that on November 8, 2022, elections to the US House of Representatives will take place, and it is very important for Democrats to hold their ground.
The main problem is that, given inflation, the average American citizen is earning less and less each month.
The average American citizen is the top voter, and if the Democrats don't fix things, they will soon lose power and control in the middle of their current president's term.
It turns out that the main problem for the Democrats to maintain their power now is inflation. And everyone understands this. So let's move on.
What is inflation for a common citizen in the first place? Of course, these are the prices of basic foodstuffs and gasoline. All people need to eat and move around.
The Fed's idea now is to lower fuel and food prices by reducing demand among the rich. Rich, in fact = people who have assets:
“Kill the markets, kill the appetite of the rich, lower inflation, avoid riots and hold on to power”
But it won't work now, as we are in a situation of conflict between Russia and Ukraine - two countries that together produce a lot of fuel, food and very important fertilizers, which other countries do not have access to due to the existing conflict.
Plus, it must be taken into account that the main electoral bloc is people born in the period from 1946 to 1964. They are also called "Baby Boomers". They are the largest in number and they are the richest because they have the most assets statistically.
Now, most of them are planning to retire, are retiring or have already retired, which significantly increases the importance for them of the state of their financial assets, since they have saved them all their lives in order to retire on them and live on them.
And here it turns out that the assets are falling, and the prices of everything are rising. A riot is also brewing right before an important election.
Given all of the above, the current US authorities and the Fed have only one solution to fight inflation on fuel and basic commodities - this is SUBSIDIES.
Subsidies come in different forms, but always, one way or another, it is money.
And money in one form or another is turning on the printing press again, in order to calm the voters for a while, at least before the elections.
As stated above, turning on the printing press = bull market for risky assets.
2. It is important for the US to maintain the right relations with its allies, for example, with the countries of the European Union and Japan.
This is especially important now, during the military conflict launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine. In connection with which additional economic restrictions were introduced against Russia, which also affects the countries that supported the imposition of sanctions.
The euro and Japanese yen are breaking records against the dollar, making it even more difficult for the European Union and Japan to cope with the consequences of the current conflict in the form of rising fuel and food prices.
The Fed will be forced to turn on the machine to support allied countries, which will also lead to an increase in risky assets.
And then what?
As we can see, turning on the printing press for the Fed is the only solution.
And it is clearly short-term, because the fundamental economic problems are not going anywhere.
It is likely that under the pressure of the consequences of the conflict, as well as the huge amount of money printed, we will already have something more serious than just promises of a recession.
But no one will scare you. On the contrary, it will be necessary to be careful when it seems that the clouds have finally dissipated.
In particular, according to available information, there are serious prerequisites for the approval of the first spot bitcoin ETF at the very beginning of 2023. Before that, there were only futures.
Now applications for the approval of such ETFs are publicly “denied” by the Securities Commission because it is “too early”. But information is thrown in so that people know about the process, and when it is already approved, they perceive it as a big positive.
And, as I said in the channel, this will be one of the serious heralds of the high market. When you see an approved bitcoin spot ETF, it is likely that you will need to sell. In any case, we will meet this event together and make a decision together.
Everything that is said in this article is not a theory, but a deep analysis based on information coming from people who are directly related to a large exchange and fund, whose investments are of particular interest due to their success.
In this article, I did not tell everything so as not to overload it, so I will continue to share information in my telegram channel .
Sincerely, Composite Man
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